Background: Polygenic risk scores (PRSs) for breast cancer, developed using European and Asian genome-wide association studies (GWAS), have been shown to have good discrimination in Asian women. However, prospective calibration of absolute risk prediction models, based on a PRS or PRS combined with lifestyle, clinical and environmental factors, in Asian women is limited.
Methods: We consider several PRSs trained using European and/or Asian GWAS. For each PRS, we evaluate the discrimination and calibration of three absolute risk models among 41 031 women from the Korean Cancer Prevention Study (KCPS)-II Biobank: (i) a model using incidence, mortality and risk factor distributions (reference inputs) among US women and European relative risks; (ii) a recalibrated model, using Korean reference but European relative risks; and (iii) a fully Korean-based model using Korean reference and relative risk estimates from KCPS.
Results: All Asian and European PRS improved discrimination over lifestyle, clinical and environmental (Qx) factors in Korean women. US-based absolute risk models overestimated the risks for women aged ≥50 years, and this overestimation was larger for models that only included PRS (expected-to-observed ratio E/O = 1.2 for women <50, E/O = 2.7 for women ≥50). Recalibrated and Korean-based risk models had better calibration in the large, although the risk in the highest decile was consistently overestimated. Absolute risk projections suggest that risk-reducing lifestyle changes would lead to larger absolute risk reductions among women at higher PRS.
Conclusions: Absolute risk models incorporating PRS trained in European and Asian GWAS and population-appropriate average age-specific incidences may be useful for risk-stratified interventions in Korean women.
Keywords: Breast cancer; model validation; polygenic risk score; risk prediction; risk stratification.
© The Author(s) 2022; all rights reserved. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the International Epidemiological Association.