Modelling HIV/AIDS and monkeypox co-infection

C P Bhunu; S Mushayabasa; J M Hyman

doi:10.1016/j.amc.2012.03.042

Modelling HIV/AIDS and monkeypox co-infection

Appl Math Comput. 2012 May 15;218(18):9504-9518. doi: 10.1016/j.amc.2012.03.042. Epub 2012 Mar 30.

Authors

C P Bhunu^{1

2}, S Mushayabasa¹, J M Hyman³

Affiliations

¹ Department of Applied Mathematics, Modelling Biomedical Systems Research Group, National University of Science and Technology, P. O. Box 939, Ascot, Bulawayo, Zimbabwe.
² Department of Veterinary Medicine, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, CB3 OES, UK.
³ Mathematics Department, Tulane University, New Orleans, LA 70118, USA.

Abstract

During the last two decades, reports on emerging human monkeypox outbreaks in Africa and North America have reminded us that beside the eradicated smallpox there are other pox viruses that have great potential to harm people. A deterministic model for the co-infection of HIV/AIDS and monkeypox is formulated and analysed. The endemic equilibria are shown to be locally and globally asymptotically stable using the Centre Manifold theory and the Lyapunov function approach, respectively. Analysis of the basic reproduction numbers and numerical simulations suggest that an increase in the number of monkeypox in the animal species results in an increase of the number of people having monkeypox. Threshold conditions that determine the competitive outcomes of the two diseases are provided. Furthermore, numerical simulations using a set of reasonable parameter values support the claim that HIV infection greatly enhances monkeypox infection and vice versa.

Keywords: Centre Manifold theory; Lyapunov function; Monkeypox and HIV/AIDS.