Is Liver Transplant Justified at Any MELD Score?

Abstract

Background: Assessing the survival benefit of transplantation in patients with end-stage liver disease is critical in guiding the decision-making process for liver allocation. Previous studies established increased mortality risk for those transplanted below Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) 18 compared with candidates who remained on the waitlist; however, improved outcomes of liver transplantation and a changing landscape in the donor supply warrant re-evaluation of this idea.

Methods: Using the United Network for Organ Sharing database, we analyzed 160 290 candidates who were waitlisted for liver transplantation within MELD cohorts. We compared patients who were transplanted in a MELD cohort with those listed but not transplanted in that listed MELD cohort with an intent-to-treat analysis.

Results: Those transplanted at a MELD between 6 and 11 showed a 31% reduction in adjusted mortality (HR = 0.69 [95% confidence interval [CI], 0.66-0.75]; P < 0.001) compared with the intent-to-treat cohort in a Cox multivariate regression. This mortality benefit increased to a 37% adjusted reduction for those transplanted at MELD between 12 and 14 (HR = 0.63 [95% CI, 0.60-0.66]; P < 0.001) and a 46% adjusted reduction for those transplanted at a MELD between 15 and 17 (HR = 0.54 [95% CI, 0.52-0.57]; P < 0.001), effects that remained in sensitivity analyses excluding patients with hepatocellular carcinoma, encephalopathy, ascites, and variceal bleeds. A multivariate analysis of patients transplanted at MELD < 18 found younger age and cold ischemia time were protective, whereas older age, lower functional status, and socioeconomic factors increased mortality risk.

Conclusions: These findings challenge the current practice of deferring liver transplants below a particular MELD score by demonstrating survival benefits for most transplant patients at the lowest MELD scores and providing insight into who benefits within these subgroups.