Background: This study aimed to investigate CURB-65, quick COVID-19 Severity Index (qCSI) and quick Sepsis Related Organ Failure Assessment (qSOFA) scores in predicting mortality and risk factors for death in patients with COVID-19.
Methods: We retrospectively analyzed a total of 1919 cases for whom the rRT-PCR assay for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) was positive. For mortality risk factors, univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were used. Receiver operator characteristics (ROC) analysis and Kaplan-Meier survival analysis were performed for CURB-65, qCSI and qSOFA scores.
Results: The patients' average age was 45.7 (21.6) years. Male patients accounted for 51.7% (n=992). In univariate analysis, some clinical variables including age over 65 years and comorbid diseases such as hypertension, chronic kidney disease, malignancy, lymphopenia, troponin, lactate dehydrogenase (LDH) and fibrinogen elevation were associated with the mortality rate. In multivariate logistic regression analysis: Neutrophil lymphocyte ratio (NLR) 3.3 and above (OR, 9.1; 95% CI, 1.9-42), C-reactive protein (CRP)30 mg/L and above (OR, 4.1; 95% CI, 1.2-13.6), D-dimer 1000 ng/mL and above (OR, 4; 95% CI, 1.5-10.7) and age (OR, 1.11; 95% CI, 1.04-1.18-year increase) were identified as risk factors for mortality among COVID-19 patients. The CURB-65 and qCSI scores exhibited a high degree of discrimination in mortality prediction (AUC values were 0.928 and 0.865, respectively). Also, the qSOFA score had a moderate discriminant power (AUC value was 0.754).
Conclusion: CURB-65 and qSCI scores had a high discriminatory power to predict mortality. Also, this study identified CURB-65, qCSI and qSOFA scores, NLR, CRP, D-dimer level, and annual age increase as important mortality risk factors.
Keywords: COVID-19; Mortality; Predictive; Risk factors.
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