The Association Between High Ambient Temperature and Mortality in the Mediterranean Basin: a Systematic Review and Meta-analysis

Abstract

Purpose of review: The Mediterranean basin is highly vulnerable to climate change. This study is aimed at quantifying the risk of mortality associated with exposure to high ambient temperature in the Mediterranean basin in the general population and in vulnerable sub-populations.

Recent findings: We retrieved effect estimates from studies linking temperature and mortality in the Mediterranean basin, between 2000 and 2021. In a meta-analysis of 16 studies, we found an increased risk of all-cause mortality due to ambient heat/high temperature exposure in the Mediterranean basin, with a pooled RR of 1.035 (95%CI 1.028-1.041) per 1 °C increase in temperature above local thresholds (I² = 79%). Risk was highest for respiratory mortality (RR = 1.063, 95% CI 1.052-1.074) and cardiovascular mortality (RR = 1.046, 95% CI 1.036-1.057). Hot ambient temperatures increase the mortality risk across the Mediterranean basin. Further studies, especially in North African, Asian Mediterranean, and eastern European countries, are needed to bolster regional preparedness against future heat-related health burdens.

Keywords: Climate change; Hot temperature; Mediterranean; Meta-analysis; Mortality.