Deep-Data-Driven Neural Networks for COVID-19 Vaccine Efficacy

Epidemiologia (Basel). 2021 Nov 30;2(4):564-586. doi: 10.3390/epidemiologia2040039.


Vaccination strategies to lessen the impact of the spread of a disease are fundamental to public health authorities and policy makers. The socio-economic benefit of full return to normalcy is the core of such strategies. In this paper, a COVID-19 vaccination model with efficacy rate is developed and analyzed. The epidemiological parameters of the model are learned via a feed-forward neural network. A hybrid approach that combines residual neural network with variants of recurrent neural network is implemented and analyzed for reliable and accurate prediction of daily cases. The error metrics and a k-fold cross validation with random splitting reveal that a particular type of hybrid approach called residual neural network with gated recurrent unit is the best hybrid neural network architecture. The data-driven simulations confirm the fact that the vaccination rate with higher efficacy lowers the infectiousness and basic reproduction number. As a study case, COVID-19 data for the state of Tennessee in USA is used.

Keywords: COVID-19; RNN; ResNet; data-driven; deep learning; k-fold cross validation; vaccination strategy.