Diagnostic activity impacts lifetime risk of prostate cancer diagnosis more strongly than life expectancy

PLoS One. 2022 Nov 23;17(11):e0277784. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0277784. eCollection 2022.

Abstract

The main aim of the study was to determine the impact of diagnostic activity and life expectancy on the lifetime risk of a prostate cancer diagnosis. We used a state transition simulation model based on Swedish population-based data to simulate life trajectories for 2,000,000 men from age 40 to 100 in order to estimate the lifetime risk of a prostate cancer diagnosis. Risk estimates were determined by the level of diagnostic activity and estimated life expectancy. Higher exposure to diagnostic activity resulted in more prostate cancer diagnoses. This was especially true for men diagnosed with low or intermediate grade disease. Men exposed to high diagnostic compared to low diagnostic activity had a five-fold increased lifetime risk (22% vs. 5%) of being diagnosed with a low or intermediate-risk prostate cancer and half the risk of being diagnosed with a high-risk prostate cancer (6% vs. 13%). Men with a long life expectancy had a higher lifetime risk of a prostate cancer diagnosis both overall (21% vs. 15%) and in all risk categories when compared to men with a short life expectancy. The lifetime risk of a prostate cancer diagnosis is strongly influenced by diagnostic activity and to a lesser degree by life expectancy.

Publication types

  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

  • Adult
  • Aged
  • Aged, 80 and over
  • Computer Simulation
  • Humans
  • Life Expectancy
  • Male
  • Middle Aged
  • Pelvis
  • Prostate*
  • Prostatic Neoplasms* / diagnosis
  • Prostatic Neoplasms* / epidemiology

Grants and funding

This work was supported by The Swedish Cancer Society (190030), and Uppsala County Council. These grants were unconditional, and the funding organization had no influence on the work performed.