Extreme risk spillover from uncertainty to carbon markets in China and the EU-A time varying copula approach

Abstract

Emissions Trading Schemes (ETS) rely on market signals like price stability and predictability, which are affected by the volatility of the financial market and the energy market. Risk is an important indicator of price stability. Using a time-varying copula method, this study analyzes the extreme risk impact of uncertainties (including Economic policy uncertainty (EPU), financial market (VIX) and energy market uncertainty (OVX)) on carbon markets in China and the European Union (EU). This paper also measures the asymmetry of that risk spillover; that is, we identify the impact of increasing and decreasing uncertainties on ETS market risk (stability). Our results show that increased uncertainty in economic policies, financial markets and energy markets will lead to a decline in ETS prices in China and the EU. Chinese and European ETS market risks are most significantly affected by energy market uncertainty changes, and least affected by economic uncertainty changes. Although European ETS markets are riskier than Chinese ETS markets, European ETS prices are more stable. Downside and upside analysis show that risk spillovers to Chinese and European carbon markets are significantly asymmetric and dynamic. Specifically, the downward volatility of uncertainty has a stronger risk impact on ETS than the upward volatility does. Our research provides a useful reference for policy makers to improve ETS market price stability and guide expectations, providing investors with a reliable method to predict market risks.

Keywords: Carbon markets; Delta CoVaR; Extreme risk; Uncertainty.