Regional land use change is the main cause of carbon storage changes in ecosystems. Predicting the impact of future land use changes on carbon storage is of great significance for the sustainable development of carbon storage functions. In recent years, under the combined action of natural and human factors, the land use in the source region of the Yellow River has changed significantly, and its carbon storage function has also changed accordingly. This study combined InVEST and GeoSoS-FLUS models to evaluate land use change and its impact on carbon storage in the source region of the Yellow River from 2000 to 2020 and from 2020 to 2040 under different scenarios. The results showed that:① from 2000 to 2020, the carbon storage in the source region of the Yellow River showed an overall upward trend, with a total increase of 11.59×106 t. ② Over the past 20 years, the land use changes in the source region of the Yellow River included mainly the increase in the area of low-coverage grassland, construction land, and wetland and the decrease in the area of high-coverage grassland, medium-coverage grassland, and unused land, as well as the large-scale reduction of unused land and the reduction of grassland. The increase in the area of wetlands was the main reason for the increase in carbon storage. ③ Under the natural change scenario in 2040, the ecosystem carbon storage in the source region of the Yellow River was 871.34×106 t, an increase of 3.92×106 t compared with that in 2020. Under the ecological protection scenario, carbon storage increased significantly, with an increase of 13.53×106 t compared with that in 2020. The results of this study can provide a scientific reference for the decision-making of land use management and the sustainable development of carbon storage function in the source region of the Yellow River.
Keywords: GeoSoS-FLUS model; InVEST model; ecosystem carbon storage; land use change; source area of the Yellow River.