Restrictions on outdoor activities are required to suppress the COVID-19 pandemic. To monitor social risks and control the pandemic through sustainable restrictions, we focus on the relationship between the number of people going out and the effective reproduction number. The novelty of this study is that we have considered influx population instead of staying-population, as the data represent congestion. This enables us to apply our analysis method to all meshes because the influx population may always represent the congestion of specific areas, which include the residential areas as well. In this study, we report the correlation between the influx population in downtown areas and business districts in Tokyo during the pandemic considering the effective reproduction number and associated time delay. Moreover, we validate our method and the influx population data by confirming the consistency of the results with those of the previous research and epidemiological studies. As a result, it is confirmed that the social risk with regard to the spread of COVID-19 infection when people travel to downtown areas and business districts is high, and the risk when people visit only residential areas is low.
Keywords: COVID-19; Effective reproduction number; Hotspot analysis; Mobile phone data.
© The Author(s) 2022.