Evaluating the impact of human flow on the spread of infectious diseases

Abstract

This study explores infectious disease transmission through contact during daily trips between municipalities. We propose an extended susceptible-infectious-recovered model that considers daily movements on the spatial spread of infectious disease. The current model considers two types of movement: long-term movements such as migration and shorter activities completed within a day. We present analytical results using a next-generation matrix and numerical results using actual human flow data, focusing on the number of days it takes for an outbreak from each region to reach the entire area. Our results suggest that the likelihood of infection depends on the ratio of human flow to population rather than the population per se.

Keywords: Human movement; Relocation-based diffusion; Susceptible–infectious–recovered model; Touch-around diffusion.