Identification of Novel Biomarkers for Response to Preoperative Chemoradiation in Locally Advanced Rectal Cancer with Genetic Algorithm-Based Gene Selection

Abstract

Background: The conventional treatment for patients with locally advanced colorectal tumors is preoperative chemo-radiotherapy (PCRT) preceding surgery. This treatment strategy has some long-term side effects, and some patients do not respond to it. Therefore, an evaluation of biomarkers that may help predict patients' response to PCRT is essential.

Methods: We took advantage of genetic algorithm to search the space of possible combinations of features to choose subsets of genes that would yield convenient performance in differentiating PCRT responders from non-responders using a logistic regression model as our classifier.

Results: We developed two gene signatures; first, to achieve the maximum prediction accuracy, the algorithm yielded 39 genes, and then, aiming to reduce the feature numbers as much as possible (while maintaining acceptable performance), a 5-gene signature was chosen. The performance of the two gene signatures was (accuracy = 0.97 and 0.81, sensitivity = 0.96 and 0.83, and specificity = 86 and 0.77) using a logistic regression classifier. Through analyzing bias and variance decomposition of the model error, we further investigated the involved genes by discovering and validating another 28-gene signature which possibly points towards two different sub-systems involved in the response of the patients to treatment.

Conclusions: Using genetic algorithm as our gene selection method, we have identified two groups of genes that can differentiate PCRT responders from non-responders in patients of the studied dataset with considerable performance.

Impact: After passing standard requirements, our gene signatures may be applicable as a robust and effective PCRT response prediction tool for colorectal cancer patients in clinical settings and may also help future studies aiming to further investigate involved pathways gain a clearer picture for the course of their research.

Keywords: Biomarkers; Chemo-radiotherapy; Colorectal neoplasm; Genetic algorithm; Response to treatment.