Forecasting tourism recovery amid COVID-19

Hanyuan Zhang; Haiyan Song; Long Wen; Chang Liu

doi:10.1016/j.annals.2021.103149

Forecasting tourism recovery amid COVID-19

Ann Tour Res. 2021 Mar:87:103149. doi: 10.1016/j.annals.2021.103149. Epub 2021 Jan 16.

Authors

Hanyuan Zhang^{1

2}, Haiyan Song², Long Wen¹, Chang Liu¹

Affiliations

¹ School of Economics, University of Nottingham Ningbo China, Ningbo, China.
² School of Hotel and Tourism Management, The Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong, China.

Abstract

The profound impact of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic on global tourism activity has rendered forecasts of tourism demand obsolete. Accordingly, scholars have begun to seek the best methods to predict the recovery of tourism from the devastating effects of COVID-19. In this study, econometric and judgmental methods were combined to forecast the possible paths to tourism recovery in Hong Kong. The autoregressive distributed lag-error correction model was used to generate baseline forecasts, and Delphi adjustments based on different recovery scenarios were performed to reflect different levels of severity in terms of the pandemic's influence. These forecasts were also used to evaluate the economic effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on the tourism industry in Hong Kong.

Keywords: COVID-19; Crisis management; Delphi method; Forecasting scenarios; Tourism demand.