Background: Postoperative nausea and vomiting (PONV) is a still highly relevant problem and is known to be a distressing side effect in patients. The aim of this study was to develop a machine learning model to predict PONV up to 24 h with fentanyl-based intravenous patient-controlled analgesia (IV-PCA).
Methods: From July 2019 and July 2020, data from 2,149 patients who received fentanyl-based IV-PCA for analgesia after non-cardiac surgery under general anesthesia were applied to develop predictive models. The rates of PONV at 1 day after surgery were measured according to patient characteristics as well as anesthetic, surgical, or PCA-related factors. All statistical analyses and computations were performed using the R software.
Results: A total of 2,149 patients were enrolled in this study, 337 of whom (15.7%) experienced PONV. After applying the machine-learning algorithm and Apfel model to the test dataset to predict PONV, we found that the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve using logistic regression was 0.576 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.520-0.633), k-nearest neighbor was 0.597 (95% CI, 0.537-0.656), decision tree was 0.561 (95% CI, 0.498-0.625), random forest was 0.610 (95% CI, 0.552-0.668), gradient boosting machine was 0.580 (95% CI, 0.520-0.639), support vector machine was 0.649 (95% CI, 0.592-0.707), artificial neural network was 0.686 (95% CI, 0.630-0.742), and Apfel model was 0.643 (95% CI, 0.596-0.690).
Conclusions: We developed and validated machine learning models for predicting PONV in the first 24 h. The machine learning model showed better performance than the Apfel model in predicting PONV.
Copyright: © 2022 Shim et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.