Lumpy skin disease (LSD) is a highly infectious disease of cattle caused by a virus of the Poxviridae family, genus Capripoxvirus. The present study was designed to determine the prognostic ability of serum IL-6 in LSD using a binary logistic regression model at baseline sampling. A 17-day cohort study was conducted on a recent outbreak of LSD among cattle in the Lodhran District of Punjab, Pakistan. Infected cattle were divided into two categories based on their clinical status on day 17 as recovered (n = 33) or unrecovered (n = 17). Nodular lesions and scab specimens (n = 50) were used for the isolation of the lumpy skin disease virus and were confirmed by PCR. In recovered animals, hematological results showed marked leukocytosis, eosinophilia, lymphocytosis, neutrophilia, and monocytopenia. However, marked erythrocytosis, leukopenia, and thrombocytopenia were observed in the unrecovered animals at the final sampling point of the study. Serum levels of total protein, albumin, and glucose were significantly higher in the recovered animals. Meanwhile, aspartate aminotransferase, alkaline phosphatase, lactate dehydrogenase, creatinine phosphokinase, total bilirubin, and direct bilirubin were found considerably higher in the unrecovered group. Receiver-operating characteristic curve analysis for serum IL-6 at baseline predicts the extended clinical conditions at the cut-off value of 85.16 pg/mL (55% specificity, 94% sensitivity, area under the curve 0.8039, respectively). In conclusion, the disease-induced hematological and biochemical alterations were significantly ameliorated in the recovered animals. In addition, the study revealed that serum IL-6 can be used as a valid marker for predicting the clinical worsening of LSD in cattle.
Keywords: IL-6; LSDV; ROC; lumpy skin disease (LSD).