The first paper of this series [J. Chem. Phys. 158, 034103 (2023)] demonstrated that excess entropy scaling holds for both fine-grained and corresponding coarse-grained (CG) systems. Despite its universality, a more exact determination of the scaling relationship was not possible due to the semi-empirical nature. In this second paper, an analytical excess entropy scaling relation is derived for bottom-up CG systems. At the single-site CG resolution, effective hard sphere systems are constructed that yield near-identical dynamical properties as the target CG systems by taking advantage of how hard sphere dynamics and excess entropy can be analytically expressed in terms of the liquid packing fraction. Inspired by classical equilibrium perturbation theories and recent advances in constructing hard sphere models for predicting activated dynamics of supercooled liquids, we propose a new approach for understanding the diffusion of molecular liquids in the normal regime using hard sphere reference fluids. The proposed "fluctuation matching" is designed to have the same amplitude of long wavelength density fluctuations (dimensionless compressibility) as the CG system. Utilizing the Enskog theory to derive an expression for hard sphere diffusion coefficients, a bridge between the CG dynamics and excess entropy is then established. The CG diffusion coefficient can be roughly estimated using various equations of the state, and an accurate prediction of accelerated CG dynamics at different temperatures is also possible in advance of running any CG simulation. By introducing another layer of coarsening, these findings provide a more rigorous method to assess excess entropy scaling and understand the accelerated CG dynamics of molecular fluids.