Using Critical Success Index or Gilbert Skill Score as composite measures of positive predictive value and sensitivity in diagnostic accuracy studies: Weather forecasting informing epilepsy research

Gashirai K Mbizvo; Kyle H Bennett; Colin R Simpson; Susan E Duncan; Richard F M Chin; Andrew J Larner

doi:10.1111/epi.17537

Using Critical Success Index or Gilbert Skill Score as composite measures of positive predictive value and sensitivity in diagnostic accuracy studies: Weather forecasting informing epilepsy research

Epilepsia. 2023 Jun;64(6):1466-1468. doi: 10.1111/epi.17537. Epub 2023 Apr 4.

Authors

Gashirai K Mbizvo^{1

2}, Kyle H Bennett², Colin R Simpson^{3

4}, Susan E Duncan^{2

5}, Richard F M Chin^{2

6}, Andrew J Larner⁷

Affiliations

¹ Pharmacology and Therapeutics, Institute of Systems, Molecular and Integrative Biology, University of Liverpool, Liverpool, UK.
² Muir Maxwell Epilepsy Centre, Centre for Clinical Brain Sciences, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK.
³ Usher Institute, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK.
⁴ School of Health, Wellington Faculty of Health, Victoria University of Wellington, Wellington, New Zealand.
⁵ Department of Clinical Neurosciences, NHS Lothian, Edinburgh, UK.
⁶ Royal Hospital for Children and Young People, Edinburgh, UK.
⁷ Cognitive Function Clinic, Walton Centre NHS Foundation Trust, Liverpool, UK.

PMID: 36756707
DOI: 10.1111/epi.17537

Abstract

The Critical Success Index (CSI) and Gilbert Skill score (GS) are verification measures that are commonly used to check the accuracy of weather forecasting. In this article, we propose that they can also be used to simplify the joint interpretation of positive predictive value (PPV) and sensitivity estimates across diagnostic accuracy studies of epilepsy data. This is because CSI and GS each provide a single measure that takes the weather forecasting equivalent of PPV and sensitivity into account. We have re-analysed data from our recent systematic review of diagnostic accuracy studies of administrative epilepsy data using CSI and GS. We summarise the results and benefits of this approach.

Keywords: diagnostic test accuracy; ratio of verification; routine data; systematic review; threat score; validation studies.

Publication types

Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

Epilepsy* / diagnosis
Forecasting
Humans
Predictive Value of Tests
Sensitivity and Specificity
Weather