Genetic Risk Score Improves Risk Stratification for Anticoagulation-Related Intracerebral Hemorrhage

Stroke. 2023 Mar;54(3):791-799. doi: 10.1161/STROKEAHA.122.041764. Epub 2023 Feb 9.

Abstract

Background: Intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) is the most devastating adverse outcome for patients on anticoagulants. Clinical risk scores that quantify bleeding risk can guide decision-making in situations when indication or duration for anticoagulation is uncertain. We investigated whether integration of a genetic risk score into an existing risk factor-based CRS could improve risk stratification for anticoagulation-related ICH.

Methods: We constructed 153 genetic risk scores from genome-wide association data of 1545 ICH cases and 1481 controls and validated them in 431 ICH cases and 431 matched controls from the population-based UK Biobank. The score that explained the largest variance in ICH risk was selected and tested for prediction of incident ICH in an independent cohort of 5530 anticoagulant users. A CRS for major anticoagulation-related hemorrhage, based on 8/9 components of the HAS-BLED score, was compared with a combined clinical and genetic risk score incorporating an additional point for high genetic risk for ICH.

Results: Among anticoagulated individuals, 94 ICH occurred over a mean follow-up of 11.9 years. Compared with the lowest genetic risk score tertile, being in the highest tertile was associated with a two-fold increased risk for incident ICH (hazard ratio, 2.08 [95% CI, 1.22-3.56]). Although the CRS predicted incident ICH with a hazard ratio of 1.24 per 1-point increase (95% CI [1.01-1.53]), adding a point for high genetic ICH risk led to a stronger association (hazard ratio of 1.33 per 1-point increase [95% CI, 1.11-1.59]) with improved risk stratification (C index 0.57 versus 0.53) and maintained calibration (integrated calibration index 0.001 for both). The new clinical and genetic risk score showed 19% improvement in high-risk classification among individuals with ICH and a net reclassification improvement of 0.10.

Conclusions: Among anticoagulant users, a prediction score incorporating genomic information is superior to a clinical risk score alone for ICH risk stratification and could serve in clinical decision-making.

Keywords: anticoagulation; calibration; cerebral hemorrhage; genetics; risk factors.

Publication types

  • Research Support, N.I.H., Extramural
  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

  • Anticoagulants / adverse effects
  • Atrial Fibrillation* / complications
  • Cerebral Hemorrhage / chemically induced
  • Cerebral Hemorrhage / epidemiology
  • Cerebral Hemorrhage / genetics
  • Genome-Wide Association Study*
  • Humans
  • Risk Assessment
  • Risk Factors

Substances

  • Anticoagulants