New norovirus (NoV) variants emerge often leading to increased acute gastroenteritis outbreaks and outpatient visits. However, these increases are rarely quantified. Between September 2011 and August 2018, we included a total of 133 131 acute diarrhoea cases in 11 enteric disease outpatient clinics which were open all year round in Beijing. Over the same period, the etiology surveillance for acute diarrhoea was conducted, a total of 13 139 specimens were collected and tested, and 16.84% (2213/13 139) of all specimens were NoV-positive. The partial VP1 genes were successfully sequenced in 965 NoV strains. GII.4 Sydney, GII.17, and GII.2 predominated in 2012-2013, 2014-2015, and 2016-2017, respectively. We estimated the excess NoV-associated acute diarrhoea cases using the adjusted Serfling regression model, and three excess periods were found, corresponding to the predominance periods of GII.4 Sydney, GII.17 and GII.2, respectively, represented increases of 180.5% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 115.0%-246.0%), 114.7% (95% CI: 66.4%-163.1%) and 152.6% (95% CI: 100.2%-205.0%), compared with the baseline level. New NoV variants often caused an excess in their first year of predominance, and the excess periods of NoV-associated acute diarrhoea cases coincided with the predominance periods of NoV variants.
Keywords: adjusted serfling regression model; excess cases; norovirus; variant.
© 2023 Wiley Periodicals LLC.