Multivariable prediction model for both 90-day mortality and long-term survival for individual patients with perihilar cholangiocarcinoma: does the predicted survival justify the surgical risk?

Br J Surg. 2023 Apr 12;110(5):599-605. doi: 10.1093/bjs/znad057.

Abstract

Background: The risk of death after surgery for perihilar cholangiocarcinoma is high; nearly one in every five patients dies within 90 days after surgery. When the oncological benefit is limited, a high-risk resection may not be justified. This retrospective cohort study aimed to create two preoperative prognostic models to predict 90-day mortality and overall survival (OS) after major liver resection for perihilar cholangiocarcinoma.

Methods: Separate models were built with factors known before surgery using multivariable regression analysis for 90-day mortality and OS. Patients were categorized in three groups: favourable profile for surgical resection (90-day mortality rate below 10 per cent and predicted OS more than 3 years), unfavourable profile (90-day mortality rate above 25 per cent and/or predicted OS below 1.5 years), and an intermediate group.

Results: A total of 1673 patients were included. Independent risk factors for both 90-day mortality and OS included ASA grade III-IV, large tumour diameter, and right-sided hepatectomy. Additional risk factors for 90-day mortality were advanced age and preoperative cholangitis; those for long-term OS were high BMI, preoperative jaundice, Bismuth IV, and hepatic artery involvement. In total, 294 patients (17.6 per cent) had a favourable risk profile for surgery (90-day mortality rate 5.8 per cent and median OS 42 months), 271 patients (16.2 per cent) an unfavourable risk profile (90-day mortality rate 26.8 per cent and median OS 16 months), and 1108 patients (66.2 per cent) an intermediate risk profile (90-day mortality rate 12.5 per cent and median OS 27 months).

Conclusion: Preoperative risk models for 90-day mortality and OS can help identify patients with resectable perihilar cholangiocarcinoma who are unlikely to benefit from surgical resection. Tailored shared decision-making is particularly essential for the large intermediate group.

MeSH terms

  • Bile Duct Neoplasms* / surgery
  • Bile Ducts, Intrahepatic / pathology
  • Bile Ducts, Intrahepatic / surgery
  • Cholangiocarcinoma* / surgery
  • Humans
  • Klatskin Tumor* / surgery
  • Retrospective Studies
  • Treatment Outcome