Development and validation of robust metabolism-related gene signature in the prognostic prediction of hepatocellular carcinoma

Abstract

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is one of the most common malignant tumours worldwide. Given metabolic reprogramming in tumours was a crucial hallmark, several studies have demonstrated its value in the diagnostics and surveillance of malignant tumours. The present study aimed to identify a cluster of metabolism-related genes to construct a prediction model for the prognosis of HCC. Multiple cohorts of HCC cases (466 cases) from public datasets were included in the present analysis. (GEO cohort) After identifying a list of metabolism-related genes associated with prognosis, a risk score based on metabolism-related genes was formulated via the LASSO-Cox and LASSO-pcvl algorithms. According to the risk score, patients were stratified into low- and high-risk groups, and further analysis and validation were accordingly conducted. The results revealed that high-risk patients had a significantly worse 5-year overall survival (OS) than low-risk patients in the GEO cohort. (30.0% vs. 57.8%; hazard ratio [HR], 0.411; 95% confidence interval [95% CI], 0.302-0.651; p < 0.001) This observation was confirmed in the external TCGA-LIHC cohort. (34.5% vs. 54.4%; HR 0.452; 95% CI, 0.299-0.681; p < 0.001) To promote the predictive ability of the model, risk score, age, gender and tumour stage were integrated into a nomogram. According to the results of receiver operating characteristic curves and decision curves analysis, the nomogram score possessed a superior predictive ability than conventional factors, which indicate that the risk score combined with clinicopathological features was able to achieve a robust prediction for OS and improve the individualized clinical decision making of HCC patients. In conclusion, the metabolic genes related to OS were identified and developed a metabolism-based predictive model for HCC. Through a series of bioinformatics and statistical analyses, the predictive ability of the model was approved.

Keywords: hepatocellular carcnioma; metabolic studies; nomogram; prognosis.