Modelling and classifying joint trajectories of self-reported mood and pain in a large cohort study

PLOS Digit Health. 2023 Mar 30;2(3):e0000204. doi: 10.1371/journal.pdig.0000204. eCollection 2023 Mar.

Abstract

It is well-known that mood and pain interact with each other, however individual-level variability in this relationship has been less well quantified than overall associations between low mood and pain. Here, we leverage the possibilities presented by mobile health data, in particular the "Cloudy with a Chance of Pain" study, which collected longitudinal data from the residents of the UK with chronic pain conditions. Participants used an App to record self-reported measures of factors including mood, pain and sleep quality. The richness of these data allows us to perform model-based clustering of the data as a mixture of Markov processes. Through this analysis we discover four endotypes with distinct patterns of co-evolution of mood and pain over time. The differences between endotypes are sufficiently large to play a role in clinical hypothesis generation for personalised treatments of comorbid pain and low mood.

Grants and funding

RD and TH are supported by the Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council. ML, JMcB and BBY are supported by Centre for Epidemiology Versus Arthritis. TH is also supported by the Royal Society, the Medical Research Council and the Alan Turing Institute for Data Science and Artificial Intelligence. The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript.