This study seeks to evaluate the recurrence of kidney stones (ROKS) nomogram for risk stratification of recurrence in a retrospective study. To do this, we analyzed the performance of the 2018 ROKS nomogram in a case-control study of 200 patients (100 with and 100 without subsequent recurrence). All patients underwent kidney stone surgery between 2013 and 2015 and had at least 5 years of follow-up. We evaluated ROKS performance for prediction of recurrence at 2- and 5-year via area under the receiver operating curve (ROC-AUC). Specifically, we assessed the nomogram's potential for stratifying patients based on low or high risk of recurrence at: a) an optimized cutoff threshold (i.e., optimized for both sensitivity and specificity), and b) a sensitive cutoff threshold (i.e., high sensitivity (0.80) and low specificity). We found fair performance of the nomogram for recurrence prediction at 2 and 5 years (ROC-AUC of 0.67 and 0.63, respectively). At the optimized cutoff threshold, recurrence rates for the low and high-risk groups were 20 and 45% at 2 years, and 50 and 70% at 5 years, respectively. At the sensitive cutoff threshold, the corresponding recurrence rates for the low and high-risk groups were of 16 and 38% at 2 years, and 42 and 66% at 5 years, respectively. Kaplan-Meier analysis revealed a recurrence-free advantage between the groups for both cutoff thresholds (p < 0.01, Fig. 2). Therefore, we believe that the ROKS nomogram could facilitate risk stratification for stone recurrence and adherence to risk-based surveillance protocols.
Keywords: Kidney stone; Kidney stone recurrence; Risk stratification.
© 2023. The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature.