Purpose: To illustrate the utility of the self-controlled study design for studies without an active comparator, we compared the results of a cohort design study with a non-user comparator with those of a self-controlled design study in evaluating the risk of varenicline on cardiovascular outcomes, using a Japanese medical claims database.
Methods: The participating smokers were identified from health-screening results collected between May 2008 and April 2017. Using a non-user-comparator cohort study design, we estimated the hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) of varenicline on initial hospitalization with cardiovascular outcomes using Cox's model adjusted for patients' sex, age, medical history, medication history, and health-screening results. Using a self-controlled study design, the within-subject HR was estimated using a stratified Cox's model adjusted for medical history, medication history, and health-screening results. The estimate from a recent meta-analysis was considered the gold standard (risk ratio: 1.03).
Results: We identified 460 464 smokers (398 694 males [86.6%]; mean (standard deviation) age: 42.9 [10.8] years) in the database. Of these, 11 561 had been dispensed varenicline at least once, and 4511 had experienced cardiovascular outcomes. The estimate of the non-user-comparator cohort study design exceeded the gold standard (HR [95% CI]: 2.04 [1.22-3.42]), whereas that of the self-controlled study design was close to the gold standard (within-subject HR [95% CI]: 1.12 [0.27-4.70]).
Conclusions: The self-controlled study design is useful alternative to a non-user-comparator cohort design when evaluating the risk of medications relative to their non-use, based on a medical information database.
Keywords: confounding by indication; estimand; medical information database; methodology.
© 2023 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.