Detection of spatiotemporal changes in ecological quality in the Chinese mainland: Trends and attributes

Abstract

Global climate change and revegetation programs have significantly changed the ecological quality (EQ) in the Chinese mainland after 1999. Monitoring and assessing the changes in the regional EQ and analyzing their drivers are crucial for ensuring ecological restoration and rehabilitation. However, it is challenging to carry out a long-term and large-scale quantitative assessment of the EQ of a region based on traditional field investigations and experiment methods alone; notably, in previous studies, the effects of carbon and water cycles and human activities on the variations in EQ have not been studied comprehensively. Therefore, in addition to remote sensing data and principal component analysis, we used the remote sensing-based ecological index (RSEI), to assess the EQ changes in the Chinese mainland during 2000-2021. Additionally, we also analyzed the impacts of carbon and water cycles and anthropological activities on the changes in the RSEI. The main conclusions of this study were: since the beginning of the 21st century, we observed a fluctuating upward trend in the EQ changes in the Chinese mainland and eight climatic regions. From 2000 to 2021, in terms of the EQ, North China (NN) portrayed the highest increase rate (2.02 × 10^-3 year^-1, P < 0.05). There was a breaking point in 2011, the EQ in the region experienced a change, from a downward trend to an upward one. Northwest China, Northeast China, and NN portrayed an overall significant increasing trend in the RSEI, whereas the southwest part of the Southwest Yungui Plateau (YG) and a part of the plain region of the Changjiang (Yangtze) River (CJ) river region portrayed a significant decreasing trend in the EQ. Overall, the carbon and water cycles and human activities played a pivotal role in determining the spatial patterns and trends of the EQ in the Chinese mainland. In particular, the self-calibrating Palmer Drought Severity Index, actual evapotranspiration (AET), gross primary productivity (GPP), and soil water content (Soil_w) were identified as the key drivers of the RSEI. In the central and western Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau (QZ) and the northwest region of NW, the changes in RSEI were dominated by AET; however, in central NN, southeastern QZ, northern YG, and central NE, the changes were driven by GPP, and in the southeast region of NW, south region of NE, northern region of NN, middle YG region, and a part of the middle CJ region, the changes were driven by Soil_w. The population-density-related change in the RSEI was positive in the northern regions (NN and NW) but negative in the southern regions (SE), whereas the RSEI change related to ecosystem services was positive in the NE, NW, QZ, and YG regions. These results are beneficial for the adaptive management and protection of the environment and the realization of green and sustainable developmental strategies in the Chinese mainland.

Keywords: Chinese mainland; Climate change; Ecosystem; Human activities; Natural factors; Random forest regression.