Digital mapping of soil organic carbon density in China using an ensemble model

Abstract

The soil organic carbon stock (SOCS) is considered as one of the largest carbon reservoirs in terrestrial ecosystems, and small changes in soil can cause significant changes in atmospheric CO₂ concentration. Understanding organic carbon accumulation in soils is crucial if China is to meet its dual carbon target. In this study, the soil organic carbon density (SOCD) in China was digitally mapped using an ensemble machine learning (ML) model. First, based on SOCD data obtained at depths of 0-20 cm from 4356 sampling points (15 environmental covariates), we compared the performance of four ML models, namely random forest (RF), extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost), support vector machine (SVM), and artificial neural network (ANN) models, in terms of coefficient of determination (R²), mean absolute error (MAE), and root mean square error (RMSE) values. Then, we ensembled four models using Voting Regressor and the principle of stacking. The results showed that ensemble model (EM) accuracy was high (RMSE = 1.29, R² = 0.85, MAE = 0.81), so that it could be a good choice for future research. Finally, the EM was used to predict the spatial distribution of SOCD in China, which ranged from 0.63 to 13.79 kg C/m² (average = 4.09 (±1.90) kg C/m²). The SOC storage amount in surface soil (0-20 cm) was 39.40 Pg C. This study developed a novel, ensemble ML model for SOC prediction, and improved our understanding of the spatial distribution of SOC in China.

Keywords: Digital soil mapping; Machine learning; Terrestrial ecosystem; Topsoil carbon storage.