The human life vs economic loss dilemma: Relation between death rate and the output rate in Europe during the Covid 19 pandemic

Carlo Andrea Bollino

doi:10.1016/j.jpolmod.2023.04.003

The human life vs economic loss dilemma: Relation between death rate and the output rate in Europe during the Covid 19 pandemic

J Policy Model. 2023 Mar-Apr;45(2):377-387. doi: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2023.04.003. Epub 2023 Apr 21.

Author

Carlo Andrea Bollino¹

Affiliation

¹ Department of Economics, University of Perugia, Perugia, Italy.

Abstract

I analyze the human life-economic loss dilemma (HELD) trade-off between saving lives ad saving economic activities during the emergency period of Covid 19 pandemic. A new concept labeled HELD Curve, not addressed in the literature so far, is proposed to model the inverse non-linear relation between loss of economic activity and death rates during the Covid 19 Pandemic in Europe, due to the lockdown policy. Econometric estimation supports this view offering to policymakers a tool to assess the impact of continuing the lockdown. The HELD curve elasticity implies a trade-off of 218 thousand EURO per saved human life.

Keywords: Covid-19 pandemic; EU lockdown; Economic loss; Human death; Human life-economic loss dilemma HELD; Trade-off.