The Evolution of Excess Deaths in the United States During the First 2 Years of the COVID-19 Pandemic

Abstract

Understanding consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic requires information on the excess mortality resulting from it. Multiple studies have examined excess deaths during the pandemic's initial stages, but how these have changed over time is unclear. National- and state-level death counts and population data from 2009 to 2022 were used in this analysis to evaluate excess fatalities from March 2020 to February 2021 and March 2021 to February 2022, with deaths from earlier years used to project baseline counts. The outcomes were total, group-specific, cause-specific, and age-by-cause excess fatalities, and numbers and percentages directly involving COVID-19. Excess deaths declined from 655,735 (95% confidence interval: 619,028, 691,980) during the first pandemic year to 586,505 (95% confidence interval: 532,823, 639,205) in the second. The reductions were particularly large for Hispanics, Blacks, Asians, seniors, and residents of states with high vaccination rates. Excess deaths increased from the first to second year for persons younger than 65 years and in low-vaccination states. Excess mortality from some diseases declined, but those from alcohol, drug, vehicle, and homicide causes likely increased between the first and second pandemic year, especially for prime-age and younger individuals. The share of excess fatalities involving COVID-19 decreased modestly over time, with little change in its role as an underlying versus contributing cause of death.

Keywords: COVID-19; excess deaths; mortality; pandemic.