Objective: To assess if optical coherence tomography (OCT) and OCT angiography (OCTA) measures are associated with the development and worsening of diabetic retinopathy (DR) over four years.
Methods: 280 participants with type 2 diabetes underwent ultra-wide field fundus photography, OCT and OCTA. OCT-derived macular thickness measures, retinal nerve fibre layer and ganglion cell-inner plexiform layer thickness and OCTA-derived foveal avascular zone area, perimeter, circularity, vessel density (VD) and macular perfusion (MP) were examined in relation to the development and worsening of DR over four years.
Results: After four years, 206 eyes of 219 participants were eligible for analysis. 27 of the 161 eyes (16.7%) with no DR at baseline developed new DR, which was associated with a higher baseline HbA1c and longer diabetes duration. Of the 45 eyes with non-proliferative DR (NPDR) at baseline, 17 (37.7%) showed DR progression. Baseline VD (12.90 vs. 14.90 mm/mm2, p = 0.032) and MP (31.79% vs. 36.96%, p = 0.043) were significantly lower in progressors compared to non-progressors. Progression of DR was inversely related to VD ((hazard ratio [HR] = 0.825) and to MP (HR = 0.936). The area under the receiver operating characteristic curves for VD was AUC = 0.643, with 77.4% sensitivity and 41.8% specificity for a cut-off of 15.85 mm/mm2 and for MP it was AUC = 0.635, with 77.4% sensitivity and 25.5% specificity for a cut-off of 40.8%.
Conclusions: OCTA metrics have utility in predicting progression rather than the development of DR in individuals with type 2 diabetes.
© 2023. The Author(s), under exclusive licence to The Royal College of Ophthalmologists.