Pandemic potential of poxviruses: From an ancient killer causing smallpox to the surge of monkeypox

Abstract

Smallpox caused by the variola virus (VARV) was one of the greatest infectious killers of mankind. Historical records trace back smallpox for at least a millennium while phylogenetic analysis dated the ancestor of VARV circulating in the 20th century into the 19th century. The discrepancy was solved by the detection of distinct VARV sequences first in 17th-century mummies and then in human skeletons dated to the 7th century. The historical records noted marked variability in VARV virulence which scientists tentatively associated with gene losses occurring when broad-host poxviruses narrow their host range to a single host. VARV split from camel and gerbil poxviruses and had no animal reservoir, a prerequisite for its eradication led by WHO. The search for residual pockets of VARV led to the discovery of the monkeypox virus (MPXV); followed by the detection of endemic smallpox-like monkeypox (mpox) disease in Africa. Mpox is caused by less virulent clade 2 MPXV in West Africa and more virulent clade 1 MPXV in Central Africa. Exported clade 2 mpox cases associated with the pet animal trade were observed in 2003 in the USA. In 2022 a world-wide mpox epidemic infecting more than 80,000 people was noted, peaking in August 2022 although waning rapidly. The cases displayed particular epidemiological characteristics affecting nearly exclusively young men having sex with men (MSM). In contrast, mpox in Africa mostly affects children by non-sexual transmission routes possibly from uncharacterized animal reservoirs. While African children show a classical smallpox picture, MSM mpox cases show few mostly anogenital lesions, low-hospitalization rates and 140 fatal cases worldwide. MPXV strains from North America and Europe are closely related, derived from clade 2 African MPXV. Distinct transmission mechanisms are more likely causes for the epidemiological and clinical differences between endemic African cases and the 2022 epidemic cases than viral traits.