Background: Liver cirrhosis is the final stage of chronic liver disease. We aimed to evaluate non-invasive scores as predictors of complications and outcome in cirrhotic patients.
Methods: A total of 150 cirrhotic patients were included. Models for end-stage liver disease (MELD), albumin-bilirubin (ALBI) score, neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio (NLR), monocyte-lymphocyte ratio (MoLR), and neutrophil-lymphocyte-albumin ratio (NLA) scores were tested in relation to the development of complications and mortality using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves.
Results: The ROC curve analysis showed (area under the curve) AUC values of NLR, NLA, ALBI, and MELD of 0.711, 0.730, 0.627, and 0.684, respectively, for short-term mortality. MELD, ALBI, and NLA scores showed a statistically significant correlation with hepatic encephalopathy (p = 0.000 vs. 0.014 vs. 0.040, respectively), and the MELD cut-off value of 16 had a sensitivity of 70% and a specificity of 52% (AUC: 0.671, 95% CI (0.577-0.765)). For the assessment of the presence of ascites, the AUC values for NLA and MoLR were 0.583 and 0.658, respectively, with cut-offs of 11.38 and 0.44.
Conclusions: MELD, ALBI, and NLA are reliable predictors of hepatic encephalopathy. NLA and MoLR showed a significant correlation with the presence of ascites, and MELD, ALBI, NLR, and NLA have prognostic value to predict 30-day mortality in cirrhotic patients.
Keywords: hematological indices; liver cirrhosis; non-invasive scores.