A hybrid Monte Carlo simulation risk model for oil exploration projects

Mar Pollut Bull. 2023 Sep;194(Pt A):115270. doi: 10.1016/j.marpolbul.2023.115270. Epub 2023 Aug 9.


A new 3-D Hybrid Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) Risk Model is proposed in this study. The wind, wave, current, climate change, and tsunami sub-models of the Three-Dimensional Hydrodynamic Transport and Water Quality Model HYDROTAM-3D are interrelated with MCS, to obtain probability distributions for the simulation of environmental conditions. This is the only model that can incorporate the tsunami, storm, and sea level rise risks in oil exploration projects. The spill risk index (SRI) of 50 blue barrels spilled due to a blowout from the rig/port during fuel supply was circa 1 ton/ship as Tier I with an average annual occurrence probability of 1.0 × 10-6. The discharge of 4000 bbls for 6 h was modeled, resulting in the SRI of 546 metric tons from the riser blowout with SRI = 0.2 per meter, indicating a Tier II risk. The mean arrival time of this spill was found by MCS as 145 min.

MeSH terms

  • Computer Simulation
  • Monte Carlo Method
  • Petroleum Pollution* / analysis
  • Water Quality
  • Wind