Dynamics of the distribution of invasive alien plants (Asteraceae) in China under climate change

Wenjun Yang; Shuxia Sun; Naixian Wang; Peixian Fan; Chao You; Renqing Wang; Peiming Zheng; Hui Wang

doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.166260

Dynamics of the distribution of invasive alien plants (Asteraceae) in China under climate change

Sci Total Environ. 2023 Dec 10:903:166260. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.166260. Epub 2023 Aug 12.

Authors

Wenjun Yang¹, Shuxia Sun¹, Naixian Wang¹, Peixian Fan², Chao You², Renqing Wang¹, Peiming Zheng³, Hui Wang¹

Affiliations

¹ Institute of Ecology and Biodiversity, School of Life Sciences, Shandong University, Qingdao 266237, PR China; Shandong Provincial Engineering and Technology Research Center for Vegetation Ecology, Shandong University, Qingdao 266237, PR China; Qingdao Forest Ecology Research Station of National Forestry and Grassland Administration, Shandong University, Qingdao 266237, PR China; Qingdao Key Laboratory of Forest and Wetland Ecology, Shandong University, Qingdao 266237, PR China.
² Qingdao Forest Ecology Research Station of National Forestry and Grassland Administration, Shandong University, Qingdao 266237, PR China; Qingdao Key Laboratory of Forest and Wetland Ecology, Shandong University, Qingdao 266237, PR China.
³ Institute of Ecology and Biodiversity, School of Life Sciences, Shandong University, Qingdao 266237, PR China; Shandong Provincial Engineering and Technology Research Center for Vegetation Ecology, Shandong University, Qingdao 266237, PR China; Qingdao Forest Ecology Research Station of National Forestry and Grassland Administration, Shandong University, Qingdao 266237, PR China; Qingdao Key Laboratory of Forest and Wetland Ecology, Shandong University, Qingdao 266237, PR China. Electronic address: zhengpeiming@email.sdu.edu.cn.

PMID: 37579809
DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.166260

Abstract

Climate change and biological invasions pose significant threats to the conservation of biodiversity and the provision of ecosystem services. With the rapid development of international trade and economy, China has become one of the countries most seriously affected by invasive alien plants (IAPs), especially the Asteraceae IAPs. For this end, we selected occurrence data of 31 Asteraceae IAPs and 33 predictor variables to explore the distribution pattern under current climate using MaxEnt model. Based on future climate data, the changes in distribution dynamics of Asteraceae IAPs were predicted under two time periods (2041-2060 and 2081-2100) and three climate change scenarios (SSP126, SSP245 and SSP585). The results indicated that the potential distribution of IAPs was mainly in the southeast of China under current climate. Climatic variables, including precipitation of coldest quarter (BIO19), temperature annual range (BIO07) and annual precipitation (BIO12) were the main factors affecting the potential distribution. Besides, human footprint (HFP), population (POP) and soil moisture (SM) also had a great contribution for shaping the distribution pattern. With climate change, the potential distribution of IAPs would shift to the northwest and expand. It would also accelerate the expansion of most Asteraceae IAPs in China. The results of our study can help to understand the dynamics change of distributions of Asteraceae IAPs under climate change in advance so that early strategies can be developed to reduce the risk and influence of biological invasions.

Keywords: Asteraceae; Climate change; Invasive alien species; MaxEnt model; Species distribution.