Market uncertainty has a significant impact on market performance. Previous studies have dedicated much effort towards investigations into market uncertainty related to information asymmetry and risk. However, they have neglected the uncertainty inherent in market transactions, which is also an important aspect of market performance, besides the quantity of transactions and market efficiency. In this paper, we put forward a concept of transaction entropy to measure market uncertainty and see how it changes with price. Transaction entropy is defined as the ratio of the total information entropy of all traders to the quantity of transactions, reflecting the level of uncertainty in making successful transactions. Based on the computational and simulated results, our main finding is that transaction entropy is the lowest at equilibrium, it will decrease in a shortage market, and increase in a surplus market. Additionally, we make a comparison of the total entropy of the centralized market with that of the decentralized market, revealing that the price-filtering mechanism could effectively reduce market uncertainty. Overall, the introduction of transaction entropy enriches our understanding of market uncertainty and facilitates a more comprehensive assessment of market performance.
Keywords: market performance; market uncertainty; price filtering mechanism; transaction entropy; willingness price.