Validation of Risk Stratification for Cardiac Events in Pregnant Women With Valvular Heart Disease

Abstract

Background: Most risk stratification tools for pregnant patients with heart disease were developed in high-income countries and in populations with predominantly congenital heart disease, and therefore, may not be generalizable to those with valvular heart disease (VHD).

Objectives: The purpose of this study was to validate and establish the clinical utility of 2 risk stratification tools-DEVI (VHD-specific tool) and CARPREG-II-for predicting adverse cardiac events in pregnant patients with VHD.

Methods: We conducted a cohort study involving consecutive pregnancies complicated with VHD admitted to a tertiary center in a middle-income setting from January 2019 to April 2022. Individual risk for adverse composite cardiac events was calculated using DEVI and CARPREG-II models. Performance was assessed through discrimination and calibration characteristics. Clinical utility was evaluated with Decision Curve Analysis.

Results: Of 577 eligible pregnancies, 69 (12.1%) experienced a component of the composite outcome. A majority (94.7%) had rheumatic etiology, with mitral regurgitation as the predominant lesion (48.2%). The area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve was 0.884 (95% CI: 0.844-0.923) for the DEVI and 0.808 (95% CI: 0.753-0.863) for the CARPREG-II models. Calibration plots suggested that DEVI score overestimates risk at higher probabilities, whereas CARPREG-II score overestimates risk at both extremes and underestimates risk at middle probabilities. Decision curve analysis demonstrated that both models were useful across predicted probability thresholds between 10% and 50%.

Conclusions: In pregnant patients with VHD, DEVI and CARPREG-II scores showed good discriminative ability and clinical utility across a range of probabilities. The DEVI score showed better agreement between predicted probabilities and observed events.

Keywords: CARPREG-II score; DEVI score; composite adverse cardiac outcome; pregnancy; rheumatic heart disease; risk stratification; valvular heart disease.