[Design of a predictive score table for peritonsillar infection based on signs and symptoms]

Abstract

Background: Peritonsillar infection (PTI) is a reason for urgent consultation due to intense throat discomfort. A delayed or inaccurate diagnosis can jeopardize the upper aerodigestive tract and be fatal in its evolution. Our objective was to develop a predictive model for the presence of IPA helping in its rapid detection.

Patients and methods: A 66-month retrospective observational study from 2017 was carried out in a county and tertiary referral hospitals, registering data from all patients diagnosed with PTI and a proportional volume of subjects with pharyngeal symptoms without PTI. Collection of clinical, exploratory and demographic data among participants. Their higher relative risk of PTI presence allowed them to be considered as variables to be tested. Development of a scoring scale for the probability of suffering from it and logistic regression analysis, obtaining the ROC curve with the best diagnostic correlation. Internal validation and estimation of the predictive values of the model.

Results: On 348 cases of PTI, the assessment scale scored the presence of six variables: trismus (3), unilateral dysphagia-odynophagia (2), velar bulging (2), reflex otalgia (1), pharyngolalia (1) and age between 16 and 46 years (1). With a range of 0-10, a cut-off ≥6 offered a sensitivity of 96.1%, a specificity of 93.9%, and an efficiency of 94.9%. The area under the ROC curve was 0.979.

Conclusions: The internal validation of this model based on signs and symptoms makes it a very useful tool for early detection of PTI in otorhinolaryngology and primary care.

Keywords: Amarcadores clínicos; Clinical markers; Criterios diagnósticos; Diagnostic criteria; Epidemiology; Epidemiología; Infección periamigdalina; Método de puntuación; Peritonsillar infection; Scoring method.