Premature predictions: Accurate forecasters are not viewed as more competent for earlier predictions

J Exp Psychol Gen. 2024 Jan;153(1):159-170. doi: 10.1037/xge0001487. Epub 2023 Oct 23.

Abstract

How does the timing of a prediction influence how a forecaster is perceived? Many people believe that they will be seen as more competent if they make accurate predictions far in advance of an event. However, we find that forecasters are not seen as more competent-and are sometimes seen as less competent-when they make predictions far in advance of an event occurring. Furthermore, we find that this is because observers recognize that events far in the future are less knowable, suggesting that they may attribute accurate but premature forecasts more to luck than to skill. Forecasters would benefit from knowing this when considering making predictions. They are not penalized for waiting until more information is known but may lose credibility if they make a prediction too early. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2024 APA, all rights reserved).

MeSH terms

  • Forecasting*
  • Humans