Alternative approaches to modeling heterogeneity to analyze injury severity sustained by motorcyclists in two-vehicle crashes

Abstract

The presence of unobserved factors in the motorcycle involved two-vehicle crashes (MV) data could lead to heterogenous associations between observed factors and injury severity sustained by motorcyclists. Capturing such heterogeneities necessitates distinct methodological approaches, of which random and scale heterogeneity models are paramount. Herein, we undertake an empirical evaluation of random and scale heterogeneity models, exploring their efficacy in delineating the influence of external determinants on the degree of injury severity in crashes. Within the effects of scale heterogeneity, this study delves into two dominant models: the scaled multinomial logit model (S-MNL) and its generalized counterpart, the G-MNL, which encompasses both the S-MNL and the random parameters multinomial logit model (RPL). While the random heterogeneity domain is represented by the random parameters multinomial logit and an upgraded variant - the random parameters multinomial logit model with heterogeneity in means and variances (RPLHMV). Motorcycle involved two-vehicle crashes data were extracted from the UK STATS19 dataset from 2016 to 2020. Likelihood ratio tests are computed to assess the temporal variability of the significant factors. The test result demonstrates the temporal variations over a five-year study period. Some very important differences started to show up across the years based on the model estimation results: that the RPLHMV model statistically outperforms the G-MNL model in the 2016, 2018, and 2019 models, while the S-MNL model is statistically superior in the 2017 and 2020 years. These important findings suggest that the origin of heterogeneity in explaining factor weights can be captured by scale effects, not just random heterogeneity. In addition, the model results further show that motorcyclists' injury severities are significantly affected by motorcycle-related characteristics; there is the added factor of external influences, such as non-motorcycle drivers (males, young drivers, and elderly drivers) and vehicles (the moving status, age, and types of vehicles) that collide with motorcycles. The results of this paper are anticipated to help policymakers develop effective strategies to mitigate motorcycle involved two-vehicle crashes by implementing appropriate measures.

Keywords: Generalized mixed logit model; Heterogeneity in the means and variances; Motorcyclist safety; Random parameters; Scale heterogeneity; Temporal stability; Two-vehicle crashes.