Importance: Understanding the long-term axial elongation trajectory in high myopia is important to prevent blindness.
Objective: To evaluate axial elongation trajectories and related visual outcomes in children and adults with high myopia.
Design, setting, and participants: In this cohort study, participants in the Zhongshan Ophthalmic Centre-Brien Holden Vision Institute high myopia cohort were followed up every other year for 8 years. Participants with axial length measurements at baseline (2011 or 2012) and at least 1 follow-up visit were included. Participants were grouped according to baseline age as children and adolescents (7 to <18 years), young adults (18 to <40 years), and older adults (≥40 to 70 years). Data were analyzed from November 1, 2022, to June 1, 2023.
Exposure: High myopia (spherical power ≤-6.00 diopters).
Main outcomes and measures: Longitudinal axial elongation trajectories were identified by cluster analysis. Axial elongation rates were calculated by linear mixed-effects models. A 2-sided P < .05 was defined as statistically significant.
Results: A total of 793 participants (median [range] age, 17.8 [6.8-69.7] years; 418 females [52.7%]) and 1586 eyes were included in the analyses. Mean axial elongation rates were 0.46 mm/y (95% CI, 0.44-0.48 mm/y) for children and adolescents, 0.07 mm/y (95% CI, 0.06-0.09 mm/y) for young adults, and 0.13 mm/y (95% CI, 0.07-0.19 mm/y) for older adults. Cluster analysis identified 3 axial elongation trajectories, with the stable, moderate, and rapid progression trajectories having mean axial elongation rates of 0.02 mm/y (95% CI, 0.01-0.02 mm/y), 0.12 mm/y (95% CI, 0.11-0.13 mm/y), and 0.38 mm/y (95% CI, 0.35-0.42 mm/y), respectively. At 8 years of follow-up, compared with the stable progression trajectory, the rapid progression trajectory was associated with a 6.92 times higher risk of developing pathological myopic macular degeneration (defined as diffuse or patchy chorioretinal atrophy or macular atrophy; odds ratio, 6.92 [95% CI, 1.07-44.60]; P = .04), and it was associated with a 0.032 logMAR decrease in best-corrected visual acuity (β = 0.032 [95% CI, 0.001-0.063]; P = .04).
Conclusions and relevance: The findings of this 8-year follow-up study suggest that axial length in high myopia continues to increase from childhood to late adulthood following 3 distinct trajectories. At 8 years of follow-up, the rapid progression trajectory was associated with a higher risk of developing pathological myopic macular degeneration and poorer best-corrected visual acuity compared with the stable progression trajectory. These distinct axial elongation trajectories could prove valuable for early identification and intervention for high-risk individuals.