The transportation sector is the largest emitter of greenhouse gas emissions (GHGs) in the United States. Increased use of public transit and electrification of public transit could help reduce these emissions. The electrification of public transit systems could also reduce air pollutant emissions in densely populated areas, where air pollution disproportionally burdens vulnerable communities with high health impacts and associated social costs. We analyze the life cycle emissions of transit buses powered by electricity, diesel, gasoline, and compressed natural gas and model GHGs and air pollutants mitigated for a transition to a fully electric U.S. public transit bus fleet using transit agency-level data. The electrification of the U.S. bus fleet would reduce several conventional air pollutants and has the potential to reduce transit bus GHGs by 33-65% within the next 14 years depending on how quickly the transition is made and how quickly the electricity grid decarbonizes. A levelized cost of driving analysis shows that with falling capital costs and an increase in annual passenger-kilometers of battery electric buses, the technology could reach levelized cost parity with diesel buses when electric bus capital costs fall below about $670 000 per bus.
Keywords: United States; buses; decarbonization; electrification; emissions; fleet replacement; public transit.