Response of spring yield dynamics to climate change across altitude gradient and varied hydrogeological conditions

Anna Lamacova; Ondrej Ledvinka; Leona Bohdalkova; Filip Oulehle; Jakub Kreisinger; Radek Vlnas

doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.171082

Response of spring yield dynamics to climate change across altitude gradient and varied hydrogeological conditions

Sci Total Environ. 2024 Apr 15:921:171082. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.171082. Epub 2024 Feb 20.

Authors

Anna Lamacova¹, Ondrej Ledvinka², Leona Bohdalkova³, Filip Oulehle³, Jakub Kreisinger⁴, Radek Vlnas⁵

Affiliations

¹ Hydrology Division, Czech Hydrometeorological Institute, Na Sabatce 2050/17, 143 06 Prague 4, Czechia; Department of Environmental Geochemistry and Biogeochemistry, Czech Geological Survey, Klarov 3, 118 21 Prague 1, Czechia.
² Hydrology Division, Czech Hydrometeorological Institute, Na Sabatce 2050/17, 143 06 Prague 4, Czechia; Department of Physical Geography and Geoecology, Faculty of Science, Charles University, Albertov 6, 128 00 Prague 2, Czechia. Electronic address: ondrej.ledvinka@chmi.cz.
³ Department of Environmental Geochemistry and Biogeochemistry, Czech Geological Survey, Klarov 3, 118 21 Prague 1, Czechia; Department of Biogeochemical and Hydrological Cycles, Global Change Research Institute, Czech Academy of Sciences, Belidla 986/4a, 603 00 Brno, Czechia.
⁴ Department of Zoology, Faculty of Science, Charles University, Vinicna 7, 128 00 Prague 2, Czechia.
⁵ Hydrology Division, Czech Hydrometeorological Institute, Na Sabatce 2050/17, 143 06 Prague 4, Czechia.

PMID: 38382598
DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.171082

Abstract

Springs offer insights into groundwater dynamics. Long-term monitoring of spring yields can reflect the response of groundwater storage to climate change. We analyzed the yield trends of 136 springs across 18 hydrogeological regions in Czechia from 1971 to 2020. The trend-free pre-whitening Mann-Kendall test and linear mixed-effects models were used to assess environmental impacts on spring yields. Overall, 71 % of the springs showed no long-term trends, 28 % exhibited decreasing trends, and 1.5 % showed increasing trends in annual spring yields. Altitude has been demonstrated as a contributing factor influencing spring responses to climate change. Lowland springs (<300 m a.s.l.) exhibited the highest proportion of decreasing annual trends (41 %), while uplands (300-600 m a.s.l.) and highlands (>600 m a.s.l.) showed declines in 26 % and 25 % of springs, respectively. Moreover, highlands recorded a 7 % yield increase, indicating a complex interplay between altitude and spring response to climatic factors. A strong positive correlation was found between precipitation and yields (p < 0.01), whereas temperature increases negatively affected spring yields (p < 0.01). The interaction between temperature changes and region transmissivity highlighted the vulnerability of springs in low-transmissivity regions, predominantly those in crystalline and flysch bedrock areas, to climatic shifts. Generally, these regions have lower spring yields compared to the high-transmissivity areas of the Cretaceous basins. Although these lower-yield regions are not used as a primary water source for large areas, unlike regions with high-transmissivity bedrock, they provide water resources for local supply. Analysis of annual spring maxima frequencies revealed a shift in the culmination of maxima occurrences from April to March, with a significant decrease in April (p < 0.05) and May (p < 0.1) and an increase in March (p < 0.05), suggesting a change in spring yield seasonality. The 2015-2020 drought significantly accelerated declining spring yield trends across hydrogeological regions.

Keywords: Drought; Groundwater; Linear mixed effect model; Seasonal yield fluctuations; Transmissivity; Trend analysis.