Health care Utilization and Expenditures in Health Professional Shortage Areas

Abstract

Healthcare provider shortages are associated with adverse health outcomes, presumably stemming from the lack of access to primary care. This study examines the impact of Health Professional Shortage Areas (HPSAs) on healthcare utilization and spending across different types of care. Using the Medical Expenditure Panel Survey from 2002 to 2019, this study estimates the difference in healthcare utilization in HPSAs compared with non-HPSAs using a generalized random forest, which allows for more complex modeling of the outcome and a principled examination of heterogenous treatment effects. The results indicate HPSAs are associated with a 5% reduction in medical office visits, but no reduction in hospital-based care. These effects are concentrated in older persons living in urban areas, Black persons, and Medicaid beneficiaries. No statistically significant effects on annual spending were observed. These results offer insight into potential areas for further policy efforts aimed at reducing provider shortages.

Keywords: HPSA; MEPS; generalized random forest; health provider shortage areas; healthcare expenditure and utilization; machine learning; medical expenditures.