Taiwan ended third COVID-19 community outbreak as forecasted

Abstract

Accurate forecasting of community outbreaks is crucial for governments to allocate healthcare resources correctly and implement suitable non-pharmaceutical interventions. Additionally, companies must address critical questions about stock and staff management. Society's key concern is when businesses and organizations can resume normal operations. Between December 31st 2019 and 2021, Taiwan experienced three separate COVID-19 community outbreaks with significant time intervals in between, suggesting that each outbreak eventually came to an end. We identified the ratio of the 7-day average of local & unknown confirmed to suspected cases as the key control variable and forecasted the end of the third outbreak by the exponential model. We forecasted the end of the third outbreak on Aug. 16th with threshold ratios of $1.2·{10}^{-4}$ . The real observations crossed the threshold on Aug. 27th, eleven days later than forecasted, with the last case of the third outbreak confirmed and quarantined on Sept. 20th. This demonstrated the accuracy of the proposed forecasting method in predicting the end of a local outbreak. Furthermore, we highlight that the ratio reflects the effectiveness of contact tracing. Effective contact tracing together with testing and isolation of infected individuals is crucial for ending community outbreaks.