Disease burden and projection of total and early-onset colorectal cancer in Gulf cooperation council countries from 1990 to 2019

Abstract

Background: Early-onset colorectal cancer (EO-CRC) incidence and prevalence trends in the rise in high income countries, such as the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries. The study aimed to offer an up-to-date assessment of the overall burden of CRC, and EO-CRC in GCC countries and project its incidence and mortality in 2030.

Method: The prevalence, incidence, mortality, years of life lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) of CRC were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 2019. The incidence and mortality of CRC, and EO-CRC up to 2030 were predicted.

Results: All GCC countries showed a higher annual average percentage changes (AAPC) AAPC incidence rate for EO-CRC compared to CRC. In Saudi Arabia the number of CRC cases has increased from 1990 1484.57; (95 % UI 1987.98,1083.86) 11.4-fold-increase to 16991.83; (95 % UI 21754.79,12892.12) in 2019. In 2030, the total incidence cases of CRC for the six Gulf countries are expected to reach 13,339 thousand, primarily driven by Saudi Arabia with 7,910.19 cases. In 2030, the CRC mortality rate is projected to be 7,647 cases, with nearly 57 % of CRC mortality cases anticipated in Saudi Arabia.

Conclusion: This study sheds light on the alarming rise in CRC and EO-CRC across Gulf countries from 1990 to 2019, emphasizing Saudi Arabia's significant burden. It projects a concerning increase in CRC incidence and mortality by 2030, primarily in Saudi Arabia, and highlights the need for immediate public health interventions.

Keywords: And Disability-adjusted life years; Early-onset colorectal cancer; Incidence; Prevalence; Years of life lived with disability; mortality.