We applied a perfect prognosis approach to downscale four meteorological variables that affect photovoltaic (PV) power output using four machine learning (ML) algorithms. In addition to commonly investigated variables, such as air temperature and precipitation, we also focused on wind speed and surface solar radiation, which are not frequently examined. The downscaling performance of the four variables followed the order of: temperature > surface solar radiation > wind speed > precipitation. Having assessed the dependence of the downscaling accuracy on the scaling factor, we focused on a super-resolution downscaling. We found that the convolutional neural network (CNN) generally outperformed the other linear and non-linear algorithms. The CNN was further able to reproduce extremes. With the rapid transition from coal to renewables, the need to evaluate low solar output conditions at a regional scale is expected to benefit from CNNs. Because weather affects PV power output in multiple ways, and future climate change will modify meteorological conditions, we focused on obtaining exemplary super-resolution application by evaluating future changes in PV power outputs using climate simulations. Our results confirmed the reliability of the CNN method for producing super-resolution climate scenarios and will enable energy planners to anticipate the effects of future weather variability.
© 2024. The Author(s).