Changes in the global epidemiological characteristics of cystic echinococcosis over the past 30 years and projections for the next decade: Findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Abstract

Background: Despite ongoing changes in the global epidemiology of cystic echinococcosis (CE), there is a lack of research conducted to date.

Methods: We extracted data on incidence and disability-adjusted life years for 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2019 to evaluate the epidemiological characteristics and burden of CE through the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2019. We used locally weighted linear regression to analyse the primary driving factors of the prevalence of CE at the national and regional levels and utilised a Bayesian Age-Period-Cohort model to forecast the global incidence of CE in the next decade.

Results: Globally, the incidence of CE remained constantly high from 1990 (2.65 per 100 000 population) to 2019 (2.60 per 100 000 population), resulting in an estimated 207 368 new cases in 2019. We observed substantial variations in the disease burden regarding its spatiotemporal distribution, population demographics, and Socio-Demographic Index levels. According to established models, factors such as health care capacity, livestock husbandry, agricultural activities, rural populations, and education levels are likely to play significant roles in determining the prevalence of CE across different countries. By 2030, the worldwide number of CE cases could reach as high as 235 628, representing an increase of 13.63% compared to 2019.

Conclusions: Over the past three decades, the global burden of CE has persistently remained high, especially in Central Asia, as well as North Africa and the Middle East. Efforts should focus on more effective prevention and control measures in these key regions and should specifically target vulnerable populations to prevent the escalation of epidemics.