Harnessing urban analytics and machine learning for sustainable urban development: A multidimensional framework for modeling environmental impacts of urbanization in Saudi Arabia

Abstract

Sustainable urban development is crucial for managing natural resources and mitigating environmental impacts induced by rapid urbanization. This study demonstrates an integrated framework using machine learning-based urban analytics techniques to evaluate spatiotemporal urban expansion in Saudi Arabia (1987-2022) and quantify impacts on leading land, water, and air-related environmental parameters (EPs). Remote sensing and statistical techniques were applied to estimate vegetation health, built-up area, impervious surface, water bodies, soil characteristics, thermal comfort, air pollutants (PM_2.5, CH₄, CO, NO₂, SO₂), and nighttime light EPs. Regression assessment and Principal Component Analysis (PCA) were applied to assess the relationships between urban expansion and EPs. The findings highlight the substantial growth of urban areas (0.067%-0.14%), a decline in soil moisture (16%-14%), water bodies (60%-22%), a nationwide increase of PM_2.5 (44 μg/m³ to 73 μg/m³) and night light intensity (0.166-9.670) concentrations resulting in significant impacts on land, water, and air quality parameters. PCA showed vegetation cover, soil moisture, thermal comfort, PM_2.5, and NO₂ are highly impacted by urban expansion compared to other EPs. The results highlight the need for effective and sustainable interventions to mitigate environmental impacts using green innovations and urban development by applying mixed-use development, green space preservation, green building technologies, and implementing renewable energy approaches. The framework recommended for environmental management in this study provides a robust foundation for evidence-based policies and adaptive management practices that balance economic progress and environmental sustainability. It will also help policymakers and urban planners in making informed decisions and promoting resilient urban growth.

Keywords: Environmental management; Environmental monitoring; Machine learning; Natural resource management; Urban analytics; Urbanization.