Individualized prediction of anxiety and depressive symptoms using gray matter volume in a non-clinical population

Abstract

Machine learning is an emerging tool in clinical psychology and neuroscience for the individualized prediction of psychiatric symptoms. However, its application in non-clinical populations is still in its infancy. Given the widespread morphological changes observed in psychiatric disorders, our study applies five supervised machine learning regression algorithms-ridge regression, support vector regression, partial least squares regression, least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression, and Elastic-Net regression-to predict anxiety and depressive symptom scores. We base these predictions on the whole-brain gray matter volume in a large non-clinical sample (n = 425). Our results demonstrate that machine learning algorithms can effectively predict individual variability in anxiety and depressive symptoms, as measured by the Mood and Anxiety Symptoms Questionnaire. The most discriminative features contributing to the prediction models were primarily located in the prefrontal-parietal, temporal, visual, and sub-cortical regions (e.g. amygdala, hippocampus, and putamen). These regions showed distinct patterns for anxious arousal and high positive affect in three of the five models (partial least squares regression, support vector regression, and ridge regression). Importantly, these predictions were consistent across genders and robust to demographic variability (e.g. age, parental education, etc.). Our findings offer critical insights into the distinct brain morphological patterns underlying specific components of anxiety and depressive symptoms, supporting the existing tripartite theory from a neuroimaging perspective.

Keywords: gray matter volume; individual prediction; machine learning; regression algorithm.