Antiretroviral therapy (ART) is not a cure. Upon ART cessation, virus rapidly rebounds from latently-infected cells ("the HIV reservoir"). The reservoir is largely stabilized at the time of ART initiation and then decays slowly. Here, leveraging >500 longitudinal samples from 67 people with HIV (PWH) treated during acute infection, we developed a novel mathematical model to predict reservoir decay using the intact proviral DNA assay (IPDA) from peripheral CD4+ T cells. Nonlinear generalized additive models adjusted for initial CD4+ T count, pre-ART viral load, and timing of ART initiation demonstrated rapid biphasic decay of intact DNA (week 0-5: t1/2 ~0.71 months; week 5-24: t1/2 ~3.9 months) that extended out to 1 year of ART, with similar trends for defective DNA. Predicted reservoir decay were faster for participants individuals with earlier timing of ART initiation, higher initial CD4+ T cell count, and lower pre-ART viral load. These estimates are ~5-fold faster than prior reservoir decay estimates among chronic-treated PWH. Thus, these data add to our limited understanding of host viral control at the earliest stages of HIV reservoir stabilization, potentially informing future HIV cure efforts aimed at diverse, global population of PWH initiating ART at varying stages of disease.
Keywords: HIV reservoir decay; acute HIV; antiretroviral therapy (ART); pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP).