The COVID-19 vaccination campaign in Switzerland and its impact on disease spread

M Bekker-Nielsen Dunbar; L Held

doi:10.1016/j.epidem.2024.100745

The COVID-19 vaccination campaign in Switzerland and its impact on disease spread

Epidemics. 2024 Feb 20:47:100745. doi: 10.1016/j.epidem.2024.100745. Online ahead of print.

Authors

M Bekker-Nielsen Dunbar¹, L Held²

Affiliations

¹ Epidemiology, Biostatistics and Prevention Institute, University of Zurich, Switzerland. Electronic address: madun9861@oslomet.no.
² Epidemiology, Biostatistics and Prevention Institute, University of Zurich, Switzerland.

PMID: 38593727
DOI: 10.1016/j.epidem.2024.100745

Abstract

We analyse infectious disease case surveillance data to estimate COVID-19 spread and gain an understanding of the impact of introducing vaccines to counter the disease in Switzerland. The data used in this work is extensive and detailed and includes information on weekly number of cases and vaccination rates by age and region. Our approach takes into account waning immunity. The statistical analysis allows us to determine the effects of choosing alternative vaccination strategies. Our results indicate greater uptake of vaccine would have led to fewer cases with a particularly large effect on undervaccinated regions. An alternative distribution scheme not targeting specific age groups also leads to fewer cases overall but could lead to more cases among the elderly (a potentially vulnerable population) during the early stage of prophylaxis rollout.

Keywords: Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19); Endemic–epidemic modelling; Infectious disease surveillance; Vaccination coverage.